It is expected that the profit of seamless steel pipes in 2026 will be fully released flexibly under the dual positive driving force

Hit：4512026-04-04 00:00:00　

It is expected that the profit of seamless steel pipes in 2026 will be fully released flexibly under the dual positive driving force
In 2026, the seamless steel pipe industry is expected to experience a restorative growth in profits driven by both cost support and policy incentives, but overall it is still in a low profit range with significant structural differentiation. 
According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the possibility of a significant decrease in crude steel consumption in China in the future is relatively small. This is because on the one hand, China is still in the process of urbanization and industrialization, requiring a large amount of crude steel; On the other hand, with the expansion of application scenarios, the demand for steel as a basic material still has potential. The promotion of prefabricated steel structures, the upgrading and expansion of the manufacturing industry, and the rapid development of the new energy sector have all supported China's steel consumption to maintain a peak level for a long time. In the short term, 2026 will be a year of strong fiscal efficiency release. One trillion yuan of special treasury bond and special refinancing debt will effectively alleviate the capital problem and no longer limit the physical demand for infrastructure. It is expected that in 2026, the profits of steel mills will be driven by the dual benefits of improved demand and cost reduction, which is expected to fully release elasticity.
1、 Core driving force: cost bottoming and policy increment working together
Cost support strengthens, suppressing low price competition space
As the main raw material for seamless steel pipes (accounting for over 70%), the price of 20 # hot-rolled pipe billets in Shandong region has risen to 3230-3290 yuan/ton in March 2026, and in Jiangsu region it has reached 3510-3570 yuan/ton. The rise in iron ore and coke prices has formed a rigid cost support. This effectively curbed the phenomenon of "low price internal competition" in the industry and provided the basic conditions for profit recovery.
The implementation of the "two new" policies continues, and the demand side is expected to rebound
In 2026, the country will implement large-scale equipment updates and the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods ("two new"), which is expected to drive an average annual growth of about 12 million tons in steel consumption, with seamless steel pipes being one of the key beneficiary varieties. Especially in the fields of oil and gas transportation, engineering machinery, new energy buses and other equipment updates, it will directly drive the release of demand for high-end seamless pipes.
2、 Profit situation and regional differentiation: high-end determines profit level
The industry average profit is still at a low level: the average profit of blast furnace tube factories in 2025 is 88 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 126 yuan/ton; Shandong's billet adjustment and rolling enterprises even lost 42 yuan/ton.
Significant differences in regional and product structure:
Due to the focus on high value-added products such as precision tubes and variety tubes, the average profit in Jiangsu region will reach 178 yuan/ton in 2025, which is significantly better than other regions.
Enterprises in Shandong region generally face cost pressure and homogeneous competition, resulting in weak profitability.
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